The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has developed three scenarios for the future development of the global economy, taking into account the US-Israeli military operation against Iran.
The report indicated that “in the worst-case scenario, the raw materials price shock will be more severe and longer-lasting, with oil prices rising by 100% starting in the second quarter of 2026, compared to the baseline level recorded in the World Economic Outlook report issued last January, and remaining at that level in 2027 before declining in 2028.”.
Optimistic scenario
The report indicated that in this case, the average price of a barrel of oil would be around $110 this year and around $125 next year, according to experts from the International Monetary Fund.
Experts also predict that gas prices in Europe and Asia will rise by 200% during the same period, according to the report.
Finally, in the optimistic scenario, the IMF expects energy prices to rise by 19% in 2026, and oil prices specifically by 21.4%.
The report's authors predict that the price of a barrel of oil will reach $82.22 this year and $75.97 next year.
